Luton saw a two-goal lead wiped out by an in-form West Brom side that have risen from relegation contenders to Championship play-off pretenders. Here are our takeaways from the game.
Home discomforts continue
Caveats can be made for Saturday’s defeat to West Brom, because while a 2-0 lead at home should not result in zero points, there’s a strong case to say that the Baggies are the best side Town have faced at Kenilworth Road this term. Their form under Carlos Corberan is nothing short of phenomenal and there’s now strong vibes of Nottingham Forest’s run from the foot of the Championship to promotion to the Premier League last term.
But, the defeat adds to a growing issue which has seen Luton drop 14 points from winning positions at their headquarters, with just three victories out of 13 all season.
Eleven of those dropped points were under the stewardship of Nathan Jones, while new boss Rob Edwards has won one and lost one at home.
Asked if Luton’s home form was an issue, the manager said: “Not for me. I try not to think about what’s gone before. I think about what we’ve had here so far, since we’ve been in, so I don’t feel that at all. I don’t think the players do either.”
Morris stunner but Kenny disappointments
Carlton Morris’ opener from 30 yards out, with seemingly nothing on for a shot, was the sign of a striker in the highest of confidence.
He continues to demonstrate that, as a goalscorer, he can do almost anything. He’s been getting the plaudits but just not the points his goals have deserved at home.
Morris was animatedly furious with James Bree for West Brom’s third, as the right wing-back completely failed to track Conor Townsend for an unopposed winner at the back stick.
On a purely statistical basis, you could understand why, because the top scorer has bagged seven of his 11 goals in six games at Kenilworth Road this season, but has only ended on the winning side once, seeing 12 points disappear, despite his efforts.
Adebayo back at it but record ends
Until the weekend, you used to be able to bet your house on Luton not losing once Elijah Adebayo had scored, but West Brom’s fightback put an end to that.
First, however, his goal was beautiful. James Bree’s free-kick begged for a bullet header and the striker obliged.
It was only Adebayo’s fourth of a frustrating season and his first in 11 outings, though his performances have merited more of late, but in the 22 games he’d notched before for Luton (with 25 goals in total) they’d never lost.
But, hopefully, with the confidence in which he hit the net it reignites his goalscoring form this season.
But 2-0 is a dangerous scoreline… or is it?
Adebayo’s header made it 2-0 by the 11th minute, but it still wasn’t enough to ward off West Brom.
But they say a 2-0 lead is the most dangerous winning margin, or is it?
The available evidence suggests that this often-used football cliche is almost never correct. Back in 2017 Opta data showed – albeit in the Premier League – that 2,481 of 2,766 teams that have held a two-goal advantage during a game since the Premier League kicked off in August 1992 ended up winning the fixture. Only 212 ended in draws and 73 with defeat.
In percentage terms, 90 per cent of teams that gain a two-goal lead win the game, 7.4 per cent draw and only 2.6 per cent suffer defeat.
Town entered into that small figure because they were simply dominated after their early opening salvo. Sometimes you have to hold your hands up and say you were beaten by one of the best sides in the division.
Horvath howlers
When trying to avoid proving the cliche right, it was least advisable to gift a goal right before the break to give West Brom a route back into the contest.
It should be stated that the Baggies had been battering on the door before then, with Daryl Dike hitting the bar and Ethan Horvath producing a couple of useful saves to keep them at bay.
But there’s no denying that if you’re racing off your line you have to be certain you’re going to get the ball and, as quick as Dike is, his countryman’s determination should have cleared the ball and the striker with it.
Butterfingers then instigated the panic that led to Albion’s equaliser, by Horvath first dropping a comfortable up and under and then opting to parry a follow-up into the path of Jayson Molumby when keeping hold of the ball was well within his wheelhouse.
His defenders didn’t help in failing to clear the ball in between, but the Baggies didn’t have a sniff if you caught the ball in the first place.
Edwards said: “He’s been fantastic, he made some brilliant saves as well, so there is absolutely no criticism coming his way from me, at all.
“For the second, It looked like we had a couple of opportunities to clear the ball, that’s what we’ve done really, really well this season.
“At the time you think, we’ve just got to clear our lines and we didn’t.
“That one was probably the most frustrating one out of all of them to be honest, but it happened and we’ve got to learn from it.
“I know going forward the lads will do, we will do, because that’s what we do and we’ve done that consistently for a long period of time.”
These articles are brilliant. Usually spot on and always very insightful. I hope Super Robbie Edwards is as good.