Today against Preston North End will mark a 200th game for Nathan Jones in front of 2,000 Hatters fans and, in this strangest of years, any way you do the math (as the Americans would say), it all adds up for for the Luton manager.
Really, the equation was finally complete moments before kick-off against Norwich, when the Welshman emerged from the Kenilworth Road tunnel.
Jones did so to the tune of generous applause from 1,000 Luton fans chosen to be the first spectators in the much-loved old stadium in nine long pandemic-ridden months.
By the final whistle on a 3-1 victory against the league leaders, the select 1,000 supporters were singing the Welshman’s name, having had to watch the previous 23 games of his second spell in charge on TV screens, laptops and phones.
Today, double that number will be present for another milestone match against Preston. It was against the Lilywhites last term, with Town staring down the barrel of an instant return to League One, that Jones made his second debut.
It’s unlikely, that last week’s almost unanimous ovation and a reprise of “Nathan Jones’ Barmy Army” would’ve greeted the manager that day, had fans not been shutout of stadia due to Coronavirus.
But a late Callum McManaman’s equaliser set the tone for a nine-game mini season and a final day Great Escape, that fans could play no present part in.
So, it’s hard to know whether the reception before and after the Norwich game was because of genuine redemption, Luton’s best result of the campaign, or the relief of watching live football in the flesh for such a long time.
Maybe those are just some of the elements and the real litmus test is to come, at the back end of a Kenilworth Road defeat.
So far, it seems an equilibrium had been restored, though social media suggests there are still those out there with an itchy trigger finger and a penchant for a snake emoji.
The strength of negative emotion was understandable 23 months ago when Jones left for Stoke, maybe even seven months ago, but now? I hope not.
If you deny, not just football managers, but people the room to admit mistakes, or to change or to grow, then that’s more stubborn denialism than I’m qualified to unpack.
But it’s well passed time people moved on. The reception after the Norwich victory felt like confirmation of that, even if the actual moment for that milestone should’ve have arrived when Jones walked back into Town’s Brache training HQ in May and apologised for breaking a bond with fans.
After finally facing some of them against Norwich, he said: “Hopefully, bridges have been built, I would like to move on, I would like to move the club forward and I hold my hands up to certain things.”
But, if the last seven months haven’t been cause for perspective then today’s double century milestone most certainly is.
It’s interesting to note the comparison to when Jones marked his 100th game in charge, as he talked about the “great strides” the club, then in League Two, had made on and off the pitch.
On it, he talked about how he and his staff “had to implement that we were hard to beat,” adding: “Then we had to improve ourselves in possession going forward so that we won more games and I think we’ve made that progression.”
That’s Town’s current project – trying to find the formula for more goals in a league full of big spenders.
I sighed with many at the dreary conclusion of Tuesday’s Coventry stalemate, but given time and space since then, let’s not forget where Town have come from and where they are now. Yes, Jones played a large part in the rise from League Two to the Championship, but I mean how far they’ve come from this stage last term.
The Hatters already have nine points more on the board, and are nine places higher in the table (14th), than after the same amount of games under former boss Graeme Jones.
If they pick up a point this afternoon against Preston tomorrow, they’ll mark the current Jones’ 200th game in charge by reaching 24 points 11 games sooner than last term. A win would be the manager’s 100th.
It’s already progress. And after survival, that’s another major reason why the 2020 Board reconciled with Jones.
The numbers don’t lie either. The 47-year-old is statistically Luton’s best ever permanent manager, with a total league win percentage (49.1 per cent) and points per game (1.77), across both spells in charge.
Of course, you mustn’t be blind to the fact that some of his predecessors led top flight Luton sides, but a 200th game is reason enough to compare records, and his is very impressive.
As a side point it’s worth giving special mention to Mick Harford – who, as a temporary boss, who filled Jones’ shoes after his shock departure, then instigated the his return, becoming his number two – recorded 2.10 points per game to get Luton back in the Championship after 12 years away.
They’re now in 14th place and the last time Town were knocking around the relative mid-table comfort of the second tier, Mike Newell was in charge and he did pretty well (until someone mentioned female officials and club mismanagement started the rot). Yet the Liverpudlian only managed a 40.9 per cent win rate and 1.48 points per game.
But perhaps more comparable is David Pleat, due to him also having two spells in charge of the Hatters. OK, you have to make concessions for the top-flight factor but, just on the raw data alone, Pleat’s winning returns were less than Jones’, both individually and total (34.6 per cent and 1.33 points per game).
All of that is good pub debate fare – a substantial never-ending meal that may be influenced by who was your favourite boss. Perhaps that was John Still (38.8 per cent league win rate and 1.40 points per game) or Joe Kinnear (46.4 per cent win rate and 1.64 points per game).
But, the point here is not to instigate a popularity contest, merely to cast an eye over the current incumbent ahead of a major milestone for him.
And he’s managed a squad of largely the same players to be currently nine points better off that at this stage last season. Importantly, that’s 11 points clear of the drop zone, having transformed from one of the leakiest defences last term, which has now conceded 12 less goals after 17 games.
So, with the biggest crowd of the campaign guaranteed for today’s Championship clash at home to Preston North End – for 2,000 socially-distanced souls – it’s another chance to take stock and keep moving forward, past that water under the bridge.
Regardless of the result of Jones’ 200th game in charge, congratulations are in order. Few will look back at the year 2020 with fondness but, actually, on the pitch at least, the plan is working and he’s helped ensure it all adds up.
Win percentage stats supplied by Simon Pitts
