Manager Jack Wilshere believes the Hatters’ underlying defensive numbers tell a very different story to the 14 goals Luton have conceded in their opening six League One games.
Now in a three-week international break from league action after back-to-back defeats by Stevenage and Bradford City, the Town boss has reviewed those games with his coaching staff and players.
Wilshere maintains that Luton did enough to earn points in those two games against two of the meanest defences in the division — in fact one metric has only those two teams above Town.
But while the Hatters have been left frustrated by their results, Wilshere says their defensive work is one of the reasons for optimism, with the underlying statistics suggesting they have been much harder to create chances against than their goals-against column indicates.
According to FotMob’s current League One data, Luton are joint-second in the division for lowest expected goals conceded, with their opponents having generated just 7.0 xG against them.
Only Bradford, who have conceded four actual goals, have a lower figure at 6.6, while Stevenage are third on 7.0. Luton, however, have conceded 14 times — twice as many goals as their expected figure would suggest.
While recognising that data doesn’t tell the whole story, that discrepancy is something Wilshere wants his players to understand rather than allowing the disappointment of consecutive defeats to obscure the progress he believes they have made defensively.
“We have improved defensively,” Wilshere said, when speaking after his side beat Ipswich 6-0 last week in the Jersey Mikes’ Subs Trophy.
“We’ve conceded a lot of goals, but — and listen, I know xG is not everything — but if you look at the xG conceded table, we’re doing really well.
“We’re doing some really good things defensively and [we’re] difficult to beat.”
It is a significant distinction for a Luton side who have been left empty-handed from their last two league matches despite Wilshere feeling they had done enough to take something from both.
The Hatters felt that they were on the wrong end of two controversial goals in the 2-1 reverse to Stevenage and then produced what Wilshere regarded as an improved first-half display against Bradford, only to lose 1-0 at Kenilworth Road, with the Bantams managing just three shots on target. In their previous home game they also managed 25 shots against Leyton Orient, but could only draw 1-1.
“If we’re serious in this league, we need to change that,” he said of taking points from performances that warrant them, adding: “But when you actually then look at some things across the whole season really, like our defensive numbers — I think that’s an important message because, I spoke to George Johnston about this — we have improved defensively.”
The numbers offer some context to that assessment.
Luton’s 7.0 xG conceded is considerably lower than their 14 actual goals conceded, while Bradford’s 6.6 xG against is accompanied by only four goals conceded. The Bantams’ defensive record therefore combines both the lowest actual goals conceded and the lowest expected goals conceded in the division.
For Wilshere, though, the next step is turning defensive potential into reality and results by becoming more threatening at the other end.
“We need to improve attacking, especially more threat in the second half, definitely,” he said.
Wilshere will review the Bradford game fully with his squad when those on international duty have returned home ahead of the trip to Wycombe on October 10, with part of that learning including a focus on what the performances and data are telling them.
“That was always the way last year — we’d review it, we’d take emotion out of it,” he said. “And that’s really important. We needed points from those two games [Bradford and Stevenage], there’s no denying that. But we believe if we continue that way and improve in certain areas, we will [get points].”
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