Behind the data that helped Hatters pick Rob Edwards as new boss

Luton Town’s analytics-assisted approach to picking out new players was used for the first time in the club’s new manager hunt, chief executive Gary Sweet has revealed after the Hatters named Rob Edwards as their new boss.

For the best part of two years, the club has carved out an innovative position in utilising data as part of its recruitment armoury to help uncover hidden gems, with the likes of striker Elijah Adebayo one of the early and most fruitful signings. 

But in losing manager Nathan Jones to Premier League Southampton last week, the Hatters had the opportunity to put their statistical skills to use for the first time in recruiting a successor to the third-longest serving boss in the club’s history. 

After 39-year-old Edwards got the gig, chief executive Sweet said: “We’ve never done that before for a previous managerial position. We’ve looked at statistics, slightly different statistics. You can look at various elements of data, but we delve deep, as we do with players. 

“It’s a bit more tricky with managers because they’ve not got the ball at their feet, but it’s a bit trickier doing it with coaches who don’t manage. 

“You can see some similarities and can pick on a lot of data where coaches might follow two or three managers, and that kind of thing. 

“We have a way of doing it and it’s available for sale if anyone wants to buy it. It’s not actually, but it’s a sound process.”

When speaking of Jones’ departure last week, Sweet confirmed that the club had long been tracking managers, ready for the eventuality that the Welshman would one day leave for a second time. 

In announcing the appointment of Edwards, Sweet said: “A lot of it was about the process. We started a long time ago, collecting data, a little bit how we recruit players. 

“We monitor players, coaches, other people and as soon as we knew there was a likelihood that Nathan would go to Southampton then we stared to draw on that data and knowledge to build an objective plan, going forwards, about who that would be to replace Nathan. 

“Of course, they’re big shoes to fill and he did a great job here. I’ll take this opportunity to thank him and his staff, for the excellent job they did.”  

In the wintry depths of last year, and two weeks after Town captured a virtually unknown Adebayo from League Two Walsall, Luton announced the establishment of a new scouting and recruitment department. 

Into that, and supporting chief recruitment officer Mick Harford, the club announced head of scouting operations, Phil Chapple, and head of recruitment analysis, Jay Socik. The latter had risen to fame as the renowned statistical mind behind the @Blades_analytic social media account.

All three men were part of the team that identified Edwards, and Sweet said: “We’re really lucky to have the people onboard, working with us to develop that model for just us, our fans and for Rob, because it’s highlighted him to us and attracted him to us. 

“However, it’s not data-led. Data is supporting evidence that backs up our decision. When we meet someone and we feel a kinship or connected to someone and we feel is the right person, character-wise, for our football club, then that’s how it works.” 

So, while some of the early focus has been on Edwards’ last, and very short 11-game reign at arch-rivals Watford, the Hornets’ hiring and firing policy belies what the data showed Luton.  

Over that Vicarage Road spell and his League Two-winning season at Forest Green Rovers, Edwards’ teams averaged over 52 per cent possession, which gives an insight into the next stage of Town’s evolution.

Indeed, Sweet said: “The way Rob likes to play football, is the way that we would like to play football. The way that Rob managed, particularly Forest Green, was not dissimilar to the way that we had promotion at those levels. 

“But the data is very, very synonymous to the way that we play, the squad of players that we’ve got, but the direction we want to take.”

Also consistent in both Edwards’ last two managerial positions, were top three rankings for crosses into the box, which is an appetising prospect for the likes of Adebayo, Carlton Morris and Cameron Jerome, plus something more to build on for the talents of James Bree. 

And for Town’s speed merchants like Fred Onyedinma, Alfie Doughty and Harry Cornick, plus the playmakers like Jordan Clark and Allan Campbell, the club were impressed that Edwards’ teams were top counter-attackers.

On the defensive side, and for the XG aficionados on shots faced, Edwards’ Forest Green were the best in League Two at not conceding big chances often, while Watford were second best in the Championship. This is a key metric because, under Jones, Luton were in the top three in the Championship over the last three seasons.  

Then, of course, in a title-winning term last season, the manager’s Rovers side racked up an impressive 1.8 points per game, which is better than the 1.63 points per game that Jones’ Luton secured League Two promotion with.  

“We felt we needed someone a little bit different,” said Sweet, adding: “When there’s a vacancy, there’s always an opportunity to change, dare I say it, to improve. 

“To take time, but improve and to go further and be a bit more ambitious. With Rob, we felt we had that.”